Read article: Black Swans or Just Wishful Thinking and Misinterpretation – Geary Sikich
Why This Matters: How often have you seen a black swan? Probably never! Why? Most swans are white or off white.
A black swan is a low likelihood and high consequence risk event. Think about a big comet hitting the earth. Think about something highly unusual that can’t be anticipated.
Was COVID a black swan? Some say yes. High consequence – definitely yes. Low likelihood – yes. But, epidemics occur every few years. Pandemics occur every dozen years or so. Think swine and bird flu. So, COVID may not have been a black swan.
Project Question: What black swans have surprised you? What were the impacts on your project? How did your project team respond to the black swans?
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